After a bit of a slow start, Cameron Boozer is up to seven points, but the star on that end for Duke is really Isaiah Evans: 11 points on 5 for 8 shooting.
St. John's, meanwhile, has just two points over the past 4:26. The Red Storm are having trouble finding much room to operate, and Zuby Ejiofor has just four points on 1-for-5 shooting.
Keys for Alabama: Force mistakes; spread Michigan out and drive
For all the frustrations (defense inconsistency) and distractions (Aden Holloway), Alabama is back in the Sweet 16, and the Crimson Tide are doing it just how Nate Oats likes. They play fast, they shoot a ton of 3s, and they hit the offensive glass. That third ingredient, though, has seen a recent surge. The Crimson Tide posted a 45% offensive rebounding rate in a first-round win over Hofstra and a 46% offensive rebounding rate in a second-round win over Texas Tech. Those are three of the team's five best performances all year.
The Crimson Tide is experiencing this boost in part because without Holloway, there are more two-big lineups on the floor. But they also place five capable shooters on the floor almost every time. With the floor spread, wings can shoot in from anywhere to hit the glass, and Aiden Sherrell and other bigs have more space to attack, too.
Alabama also does an excellent job taking care of the ball, something that can't be said for Michigan. Alabama doesn't typically force a ton of turnovers, but perhaps they can against Elliot Cadeau and Co. When they can get turnover and stops, the Crimson Tide has to run and attack before bigs Aday Mara and Morez Johnson Jr. can get set. Then they have to spread the floor to drive to score or pass. Michigan's defense can get a little sloppy when it allows guard penetration and kick-outs.
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If Michigan is going to get beaten before the Final Four, this is the spot. This matchup will require Alabama to aggressively tilt the scales in its favor with a barrage of 3-pointers to beat Michigan, and the Crimson Tide is the best in the business at it. Alabama just rained 19 3-pointers against Texas Tech. It may need at least 15 triples to hang with Michigan because the Wolverines can be so dominant in the paint.
Alabama has struggled with the most physical teams on its slate. It got dump-trucked by teams like Arizona and Florida because it couldn't hold serve on the boards. Alabama got out-rebounded by 20 by Arizona. Florida was +11 on the glass against the Tide. Purdue out-rebounded Alabama by 24. Michigan will look to do the exact same thing.
I just don't know how Alabama defends Michigan. Aday Mara is so much bigger than Aiden Sherrell. Morez Johnson is so much stronger than both London Jemison and Taylor Bol Bowen. Amari Allen is a good wing, but Yaxel Lendeborg is just a way better player right now. Michigan also has hordes of defenders that it can throw at Alabama star Labaron Philon.
Michigan should dominate the boards, dominate the paint and just hope and pray it doesn't catch Alabama on a day when it goes nuts from downtown. Alabama didn't miss Aden Holloway in the first weekend, but it'd miss him in this one if he can't play. Without making at least eight more 3-pointers than Michigan, it's hard to find pathways for Alabama to win this one. But it's entirely possible because Alabama may have the three best shooters on the floor at all times.
The pick: Michigan
In an era when players and coaches change colors more often than not, the on-court bona fides of the four coaches in the nation's capital for Friday's Sweet 16 are unimpeachable. Izzo, Rick Pitino, Dan Hurley and Jon Scheyer have combined for 2,026 Division-I wins, five national championships and, including this year, 37 Sweet 16s. For as good as the players are -- and in Cameron Boozer, Zuby Ejiofor, Jeremy Fears Jr. and Tarris Reed Jr. and others, they are very good -- the coaches are driving the star power for this 2026 NCAA Tournament East Regional site.
Each is a pillar of the sport, each in his own way. And the careers of Izzo and Pitino show the fork in the road that Scheyer and Hurley face as they build their own Hall of Fame résumés.
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Duke's second-round game against TCU could serve as a terrific prep for St. John's because a lot of the same principles will apply. Like TCU, St. John's is elite at dominating the paint, scoring points off turnovers and turning offensive rebounds into buckets. Duke coughed up 17 giveaways against TCU, which should have Pitino salivating.
St. John's is going to unleash the hounds on freshman Cayden Boozer. He passed the TCU midterm, but the St. John's heat is different. Boozer will have a size advantage on Dylan Darling, so if the press comes, mixing in some aggressive drives to the cup could be a good way to get Darling to hesitate before getting all the way up in his business.
Calling this game a fistfight in the paint is an understatement. Zuby Ejiofor, Bryce Hopkins and Dillon Mitchell against Cameron Boozer, Patrick Ngongba and Maliq Brown will be hand-to-hand combat for every mid-post backdown and every rebound.
The genius of Pitino is that the Hall of Famer makes you play the game his way. Duke has had lots of success shrinking the game, limiting easy shots in transition and squeezing the life out of you. Duke got Michigan to play a 62-possession game in late February. If it can do that against St. John's, the Red Storm may not have quite enough juice from its halfcourt offense to survive. But that's easier said than done against Pitino. St. John's has been dragged into a game of fewer than 66 possessions just six times all year.
Duke can guard St. John's really well. St. John's can guard Duke really well. So the margin for error is slim on each side.
If half-court points are going to be hard to come by, St. John's needs both of its old reliables to show up: second-chance points and takeaways into touchdowns. They'll get some pick-6s. They will not get enough second-chance points. Boozer is too dominant on the boards.
The pick: Duke
Duke may be getting a massive boost just in time for the Sweet 16. CBS Sports' Tracy Wolfson reported that, barring any overnight setbacks, freshman guard Caleb Foster is expected to play tonight against St. John's. It is a recovery Duke coach Jon Scheyer previously labeled as a longshot. Foster underwent surgery to repair a fractured right foot just 20 days ago following the regular-season finale against North Carolina. While initial timelines suggested a return wouldn't be possible until the Final Four at the earliest, Foster was upgraded to questionable on Thursday after returning to light shooting drills.
Foster may see limited minutes as he tests the foot in game action. After being classified as a true game-time decision, his presence would provide Duke with much-needed depth and a perimeter threat as the Blue Devils look to punch their ticket to the Elite Eight.
The NCAA Tournament field will be whittled down to just eight teams on Friday as the Sweet 16 wraps up with a series of blockbuster matchups. Some of the biggest brands and best coaches in college basketball will be squaring off as the second weekend of March Madness heats up. Among them are a couple of No. 1 seeds.
Up first, No. 1 overall seed Duke and No. 5 seed St. John's will tangle in Washington D.C. in a showdown between 38-year old Jon Scheyer and 73-year old Rick Pitino. They may be 35 years apart, but both coaches are at the top of their game. Also in action will be No. 2 seed UConn and No. 3 seed Michigan State in a battle between national-title winning coaches Dan Hurley and Tom Izzo.
Friday night's undercards aren't too shabby, either. No. 1 seed Michigan and No. 4 seed Alabama are squaring off in the Midwest Region. The winner will get the winner of a Midwest nightcap between No. 2 seed Iowa State and No. 6 seed Tennessee. The Volunteers will be seeking their third straight Elite Eight appearance while the Cyclones will be vying for their first Elite Eight first 2000.
