A tricky matchup awaits Kentucky today when it faces off with Santa Clara in the first round of the NCAA Tournament. Tip-off is at 12:15 p.m. ET on CBS.
My Kentucky vs. Santa Clara predictions believe the Wildcats will need to lean on senior guard Otega Oweh for scores in a closely-contested matchup.
Read on for more in my March Madness picks for Friday, March 20.
Santa Clara vs Kentucky prediction
Who will win Santa Clara vs Kentucky?
Kentucky: I made Kentucky a -3.5 point favorite, so it’s reasonable to predict the Wildcats win the game, and I am. While I certainly expect this to be close throughout, I suspect the Kentucky backcourt's athleticism will make enough plays to win this one late.
Santa Clara vs Kentucky best bet: Otega Oweh Over 22.5 points (-110)
Kentucky’s transition offense is elite, scoring an absurd 1.44 points per play (99th percentile). That’s where Oweh thrives as he’s responsible for a team-leading 7% of Kentucky’s transition scoring.
Santa Clara, meanwhile, allows 1.28 points per play in transition (one of the worst nationally). That’s a problem against Kentucky as a whole, but it’s a big issue against one of the best transition scorers in the SEC.
Why is Oweh shooting over 45% from the field? Because he gets so many easy looks. We’ll see that here.
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Santa Clara vs Kentucky same-game parlay
I paired Kentucky's moneyline here with my same-game parlay. Again, the transition stuff is the story here.
Gonzaga blitzed Santa Clara in all three games the two teams played this season, and by any definable metric, Kentucky has been better in transition. Thus, I think you’ll see a similar situation: a close game in which the Cats’ backcourt runouts push them over the edge.
Santa Clara vs Kentucky SGP
Oweh Over 22.5 points
Kentucky moneyline
Our Big Dance SGP: Pass the Bukky
Allen Graves will grab the attention of most fans when looking at this matchup from the Santa Clara perspective, but he’ll also grab the attention of Kentucky defenders. That should open up opportunities for others to score, and these two attack the weak spots of the Kentucky defense.
The Wildcats have been hit with back cutters to the rim, and Hammond is easily the most common scorer off these sets. In addition, Kentucky has allowed just over 1 point per possession on big cuts and rolls, compared to the D1 average of 0.89. Oboye is the primary scorer of these actions for Santa Clara.
Santa Clara vs Kentucky SGP
Oweh Over 22.5 pts
Kentucky moneyline
Christian Hammond Over 15.5 points
Bukky Oboye Over 6.5 points
Santa Clara vs Kentucky odds
Spread: Santa Clara +3 | Kentucky -3
Moneyline: Santa Clara +125 | Kentucky -155
Over/Under: Over 157 | Under 157
Santa Clara vs Kentucky betting trend to know
Kentucky has hit the Moneyline in 12 of their last 19 games (+5.70 Units / 13% ROI). Find more college basketball betting trends for Santa Clara vs. Kentucky.
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