There’s no joking around on “April Fools” when the San Antonio Spurs come to the Bay Area tonight to battle the Golden State Warriors... or what’s left of them.
My Spurs vs. Warriors predictions like Wemby to wipe the glass clean tonight against a thin Dubs frontcourt.
Find out more in my NBA picks for Wednesday, April 1.
Spurs vs Warriors prediction
Spurs vs Warriors best bet: Victor Wembanyama Over 11.5 rebounds (-120)
The Golden State Warriors limp to the finish line with injuries up and down the roster.
That includes holes in the frontcourt, with veteran center Al Horford and 7-footer Quinten Post out of action. Kristaps Porzingis and Draymond Green are all that stand between Victor Wembanyama and the rim.
With those forwards primarily playing above the foul line, they aren’t contending for offensive rebounds, letting Wemby scoop up a surplus of misses from a Golden State offense that finished March ranked 23rd in effective field goal rate.
The Warriors weren’t a great rebounding team even before injuries thinned out the herd, sitting 20th in rebound rate overall while allowing 11.5 offensive rebounds per outing.
Wembanyama grabbed nine, 12, and 15 boards in his three matchups with the Dubs, tallying nine offensive rebounds in those games.
The San Antonio Spurs’ 7-footer averaged a dozen rebounds throughout March on 17.3 rebounding chances across 15 games and closed the month with 16, 15, 15, and 15 boards in his last four outings.
It helps that the Spurs' defense is tightening the screws down the stretch, holding foes to under 44% from the floor during their nine-game winning streak.
That drum-tight defense is producing a spike in rebounding chances, with that metric jumping to 85.6 (the third-most in that span) from 77.3 since the All-Star break.
Player projections call for Wemby to dominate the window again, with forecasts between 12.6 and 14.2 rebounds tonight.
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Spurs vs Warriors same-game parlay
The Dubs are running out of answers on offense, and while they’ve put up some points against bottom-tier defenses, San Antonio shuts Golden State down from outside and allows nothing easy in the paint.
Devin Vassell runs hot and cold. He finished with only six points last time out, following efforts of 16 and 19 points. Projections peg the Spurs' small forward for as many as 13.5 points tonight.
Spurs vs Warriors SGP
Under 226.5
Victor Wembanyama Over 11.5 rebounds
Devin Vassell Over 12.5 points
Our "from downtown" SGP: Lights go down in the city
If defense wins championships, then the Spurs are on the right path. This is one of the Association's most stingy teams, with Wemby cleaning the glass and sending shots back against a smaller Warriors lineup.
Wemby has cleared this block line in five of his last 10 games, totaling 33 swats over that span. With Wemby doing what he wants all game, the Spurs will cover with relative ease.
Spurs vs Warriors SGP
Spurs -14
Under 226.5
Victor Wembanyama Over 11.5 rebounds
Victor Wembanyama Over 3.5 blocks
Spurs vs Warriors odds
Spread: Spurs -14 | Warriors +14
Moneyline: Spurs -950 | Warriors +650
Over/Under: Over 226.5 | Under 226.5
Spurs vs Warriors betting trend to know
San Antonio is 7-10 Over/Under when set as a point spread favorite of -10 or higher. Find more NBA betting trends for Spurs vs. Warriors.
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